COVID-19 second wave slowing down in India: IIT Kanpur study

According to the latest observations, India's infection has peaked in the first week of May and is currently on a steep decline except for a few states.

A team of researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur who are working on the COVID-19 prediction model has claimed that the second wave is slowing down in the country. Professor Rajesh Ranjan and Professor Mahendra Verma, along with their team at IIT Kanpur, are working to provide model “Covid-19 Prediction Model” for forecasts up to district-wise granularity.

The team has also launched a website to provide daily updates on COVID-19, IIT Kanpur said in a statement.

According to the latest observations, India's infection has peaked in the first week of May and is currently on steep decline except for a few states.

The average count of daily cases has become nearly 60 per cent of its value on May 8, 2021, due to interventions. It says the Test positivity rate (TPR) has also reduced from a very high value of about 23% on May 8, 2021 to about 12% now due to increased daily testing capacity.

The Case fatality rate (CFR) had increased to nearly 1.7% but is expected to go down soon with a decrease in active infections.

High TPR ( >20%) states identified are Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamilnadu, Odisha and Northeast states. Low TPR (< 10%) states are UP, Delhi, Gujarat, Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, MP, Chhatisgarh, J&K, Punjab, Telangana and Uttarakhand.

Lowest CFRs were recorded in Odisha (0.2%), Kerala (0.5%) while highest CFRs are in Delhi (8%) and Maharashtra (3.7%).

It further opined that states yet to saturate are West Bengal, Odisha along with all Northeast states.

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