Trump's 15% Cap on Foreign Students Hits Indian Aspirants Hard: Surge in Enrolments Now at Risk

Enrolments of Indian students went up to 4.22 lakh last year, from 1.96 lakh in 2021. The 5 percent country limit for institutions like NYU, Northeastern, and Columbia, will leave students scrambling for Plan B.

Indian students make up over 25% of U.S. international student pool

As Indian students continue to flock to American campuses in record numbers, topping 4.22 lakh in 2024 alone, Trump administration’s proposed 15 percent cap on international undergraduates has sparked alarm in education circles in India, potentially slamming brakes on a dream destination for lakhs of young Indians.

The policy, outlined in a recent White House memo, would limit foreign students to no more than 15% of total undergraduate enrolment at participating U.S. universities, with an additional restriction capping students from any single country like India at five percent. In exchange for federal funding perks such as priority grants and research dollars, institutions would sign "compacts" to enforce these limits. It is being started as a pilot with nine elite schools, including the University of Southern California (USC), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and University of Texas at Austin (UT-Austin), all among top favourites among Indian applicants.

For Indian students, who already make up over 25% of U.S. international student pool, the math doesn't add up. "This isn't just a policy tweak; it's a barrier to the American dream we've chased for generations," said Ravi Kumar, a Delhi-based education consultant who has helped over 500 students secure U.S. visas. "With Indians forming the largest group, that 5% country cap could slash spots at top unis by half overnight."

A Boom Under Threat: Indian Enrolments Skyrocket in Recent Years

The timing of capping could not be worse, as Indian student numbers in going to the United States have exploded post-pandemic era, surging from 1.96 lakh in 2021 to 2.69 lakh in 2022, 3.31 lakh in 2023, and a whopping 4.22 lakh in 2024, a 11.8% jump from previous year. This growth, driven by STEM programmes and post-study work options, has seen India eclipse China as the top sender, contributing nearly 27% of all foreign enrolments last year.

Popular U.S. universities like New York University (NYU), Northeastern University, and Columbia University, where Indians often comprise 20-30 percent of international cohorts, are likely to lose big.

Other hotspots such as Harvard, Stanford, and MIT, already in the pilot crosshairs, could see their Indian intake plummet under the new 5 percent rule, forcing aspirants to explore to less selective options or alternatives like Canada and Australia. 

"I appeared for JEE mains, but I always to go to USA and NYU was my top choice for computer science, now what will I do?" vented Sukriti Sharma, an 18-year-old from Bengaluru prepping her applications.

Study abroad experts predict a ripple effect with fewer admissions will create aggressive competition for remaining slots, leading to longer visa queues, and a potential 20-30% drop in Indian enrolments if cap expands beyond the pilot.

The Indian government or Ministry of External Affairs, is yet to comment officially, but education consultants are urging swift diplomatic intervention. "U.S. universities rely on our students for $40 billion in annual revenue, this cap will hurt them as much as us,” said head of a Mumbai study-abroad firm, on condition of anonymity.