Third Covid wave may peak on January 23: IIT Kanpur researcher

IIT Kanpur prof Manindra Agrawal predicts daily caseload likely to stay below four-lakh mark  

The third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India is expected to peak on January 23 with daily cases likely to remain below the four-lakh mark as per a scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur. 

Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata reach peak 

Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata have already reached their peak in case numbers in the past seven days, said IIT Kanpur prof Manindra Agrawal, the man behind the Sutra Covid model. The Sutra model has been used to track and predict Covid case numbers in the country since the beginning of the pandemic. 
As per Agrawal, COVID-19 cases in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Haryana will peak this week, while states such as Andhra Pradesh, Assam, and Tamil Nadu may see peak next week. 

“The daily peak cases are projected to peak on January 23 in India and stay below the four-lakh mark. Metro cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata have already peaked,” Agrawal said. 

He tweeted, “Finally India. Trajectory with data up to 11th indicates the peak on 23th Jan with nearly 7.2 lakh cases per day. Actual trajectory is already deviating significantly, and actual peak is unlikely to cross 4 lakh cases/day. Hospitalizations continue to be very low. UP, I understand, has less than 1% reported cases needing hospitalization. We now need to wait for new phases everywhere to stabilize. We can capture the trajectories much better, and also understand the reasons for deviations.” 

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