Devoted to votes
They are perhaps, apart from politicians, the most sought-after people during a general or assembly elections in the country. It is not too difficult to spot them then, busy as they are TV studio-hopping or writing one analytical report after another for newspapers— analysing results or predicting winners.
Poll analysts “examine opinion/exit poll data and take into account additional inputs to predict the likely outcome of an election”, says Rajeeva L Karandikar, executive VP, Cranes Software International Ltd, a Bangalore-based product and consultancy firm and a poll analyst/psephologist in his own right. They also provide insights into voting trends and look into issues the voters are concerned with, Karandikar points out.
“India being the largest democracy and a huge consumer market, there is enormous scope for poll analysts,” says Dhananjai Joshi, director, Global Research & Analytics Corporation (GRAC), a research and analytics firm. “Snap polls — focusing on not just the parliamentary elections but also on other issues — are becoming popular in the Indian media,” adds Joshi. But politics comes up trumps. “People are greatly interested in the elections, and even state elections provide ample work opportunities for analysts,” says Sanjay Kumar, fellow, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), the organisation behind the poll predictions broadcast on CNN-IBN during the 2009 general
elections.
“There are a good number of poll analysts in our country,” says Kumar. Joshi agrees, but points out, “The term ‘good’ can be applied to a few.”
“Most political analysts have a very crude understanding of the dynamics of contemporary global economy,” says Joshi. “Moreover, the statistical tools employed are either rudimentary or not best suited to the subject of research.” He attributes this lack of quality manpower to the absence of an industry union. “In the West, they have organisations such as the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR) and The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), which ensure ethical business standards and provide a forum for R&D in methodology. There is no such association here.”
With the proliferation of news channels, the demand for good poll analysts is increasing. There is no denying, however, that poll analysis can only be a part-time engagement as the elections generally happen once in every five years. “Analysts make good money during that time, but later they have to look for other sources of income,” says Kumar.
There are other avenues, too. “Once you know the analytical tools, you will find work in market research, consumer and branding research, and evaluative research,” points out Joshi.
And do not think analysts have it easy. The audiences (TV viewers and newspaper readers) often have “unrealistic expectations”, says Karandikar. Also, “factoring in the diverse Indian society and polity into your analysis/prediction in the right measure is the biggest challenge,” says Parimal Kumar Singh, associate director, Development & Research Services, a market and media research organisation. The prospects, however, are bright “as demand from political parties and the media is growing fast,” he points out.
Author: Pranab Ghosh
Date: 16th Dec., 2009
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