Colleges can prevent 96% of COVID-19 infections by following common measures: Study

As the infection rate continues to rise during the winter, the findings are especially meaningful for institutions of higher learning aiming to strike a balance between in-person and remote instruction, while managing costs to promote safety and reduce transmissions.

A study has found that a combination of three COVID-19 prevention strategies on college campuses--mask-wearing, social distancing, and routine testing--is as effective in preventing coronavirus infections as the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The study was co-authored by a Case Western Reserve University researcher.

The research, published in Annals of Internal Medicine, has immediate significance as college semesters are poised to start again--and as the distribution of approved vaccines lags behind goals. The study has found that a combination of just two common measures--distancing and mandatory masks--prevents 87 per cent of campus COVID-19 infections and costs only USD 170 per infection prevented.

Adding routine lab-based testing to the mix would prevent 92 per cent to 96 per cent of COVID infections. Still, the cost per infection prevented increases substantially, to USD 2,000 to USD 17,000 each, depending on test frequency. As the infection rate continues to rise during the winter, the findings are especially meaningful for institutions of higher learning aiming to strike a balance between in-person and remote instruction, while managing costs to promote safety and reduce transmissions.

"While some measures are highly effective, implementing them is entirely up to each college's financial situation, which may have already become strained because of the pandemic," said Pooyan Kazemian, co-senior author of the study and an assistant professor of operations at the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve.

"It is clear that two common non-medical strategies are very effective and inexpensive--and allow for some in-person instruction," said Kazemian. "While it's true routine testing of the asymptomatic helps catch some infections early and reduce transmissions, they also pose the highest financial and operational burden, even if performed every 14 days."

About three of every four students--and nearly one in six faculty--would become infected over the semester in the absence of all mitigation efforts. Minimal social distancing policies would only reduce infections by 16 per cent in students.

The study claimed that while keeping the campus closed and switching to online education the infections will be reduced by 63 per cent among students. However, it will be less effective than opening the campus and implementing a mask-wearing and social distancing policy, which would reduce infections by 87 per cent among students.

Researchers examined 24 combinations of four common preventive strategies--social distancing, mask-wearing, testing and isolation--and calculated their effectiveness and cost per infection prevented.

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