COVID-19 fourth wave unlikely as Indians have developed immunity: IIT Kanpur
The research cited two main reasons; i.e high natural immunity among people and no significant mutation of genome sequencing for lower chances of another pandemic wave.
COVID-19 fourth wave unlikely as Indians have developed immunity: IIT Kanpur
Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur research has claimed that there might not be a fourth COVID-19 pandemic. Professor Maninder Agarwal conducted the research. The research cited two main reasons; i.e high natural immunity among people and no significant mutation of genome sequencing for lower chances of another pandemic wave.
Professor Agarwal has earlier also devised SUTRA mathematical model to predict the COVID-19 pandemic trajectory. He is from IIT’s department of computer science engineering. As per the research, many people have acquired immunity acquired by a previous infection. Over 90 per cent of the country's population has acquired natural immunity, as per the SUTRA study. Natural immunity acts as strong protection against infection.
As per the ICMR surveys, it has also been found that the actual number of infected people is more than 30 times the reported numbers. During an extensive study done for 36 countries across the world, it was found that the severity of the Omicron wave in these countries was inversely proportional to the level of natural immunity present in them, as reported the news agency.
Another reason why the possibility of the fourth wave is less is that the genome sequencing has not shown any significantly new mutants even in Delhi-NCR. Variants belonging to the lineage of Omicron, referred to as BA. 2, BA. 2. 9, BA. 2. 10, and BA. 2. 12, have been detected only. This means that immunity acquired against Omicron will continue to hold against all its variants. Hence, with more than 90 per cent people in India already immune against Omicron, a fourth wave is likely to happen.
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