University of Hyderabad researchers find way to predict Indian Nino well in advance

The researchers claimed that the prediction of this tropical phenomenon well in advance will in turn help improve the Indian monsoon prediction skill.

A team of researchers at the University of Hyderabad (UoH) has come up with two models that can help in predicting the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), known as ‘Indian Nino’, beyond two to five years. The researchers claimed that the prediction of this tropical phenomenon well in advance will in turn help improve the Indian monsoon prediction skill. In the past few years, Indian has been witnessing extreme rainfall events. The Indian Ocean Dipole is a natural climate driver that influences rainfall patterns around the Indian Ocean and affects the global climate.

At present, the IOD can be predicted six months early to the occurrence of the event. Given the impact of the IOD, the UoH team collaborated with prof Mat Collins of the University of Exeter to conduct decadal predictions i.e., prediction of climate information for the near future of IOD. The newly emerging field of decadal prediction is all about forecasting the climate for the next 5-20 years, helping stakeholders in decision making and strategizing.
“Positive IOD events cause below normal rainfall in Indonesia and Australia, heatwaves in Japan, Europe and East Africa, and fires in Australia, Indonesia. The impact of the IOD can be seen all the way to Europe and America as well. Negative IODs have a tendency to reduce the seasonal monsoon rainfall along the monsoon trough. In fact, a negative IOD event was prominent till August, and is the likely factor for the below normal rainfall in north India till second week of August or so,” said prof Ashok Karumuri at Centre for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, UoH, adding that the results were only indicative.

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