Will Coronavirus impact your plans to study MBA abroad?

Imagine if this was a Rs 1-crore question on renowned show Kaun Banega Crorepati, I guess most of you would quit the game. It is no doubt that this is a tough question to answer for MBA aspirants and parents who are planning to get global education.

They say understanding the problem is half job done. So, let’s first understand this double trouble:

Impact of Covid-19

Novel Coronavirus has taken majority mindshare of people in India these days and balanced by Ramayan and Mahabharat, shows airing on TV during these lockdown days. The lockdown has forced us today to learn online as against traditional face-to-face (F2F) medium – be it schools, colleges or universities all of them have swiftly moved to online technologies trying to replicate the same F2F experience in the delivery of classes and taking exams. As humans we have a powerful brain, we have an excellent ability to adapt to any situation, be it demonetisation in 2016 which forced us to use online payment platforms such as PayTM, Google Pay or Phone Pe, to this pandemic which has forced us to use online platforms such as Zoom, Facetime, Webex, Skype and Duo to interact with people for work or fun.

When will this Covid-19 lockdown end?

Your guess is as good as mine. The answer lies with each one of us - the more we #stayathome the faster we shall get rid of this. A recent study by a Singapore based university (SUTD) suggests that India will be 99 per cent free from this pandemic by June 6, 2020. Let’s give this research an accuracy percentage of 75 per cent considering our ‘chalta hai’ attitude, which means things would normalise by end of August 2020.

It may take some more time for major metros such as Mumbai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Indore, Pune to completely get over this pandemic.

With lockdowns all around the world, the same research says that the World will be 99 per cent free from Covid-19 by June 17, 2020. Let’s pray this Singapore based university research turns out to be 80 per cent true if not more.

Now, what does all this mean?

This means all academic F2F programmes can start from September 2020 in India and around the world.

Global Economic Crisis: By the end of 2019, the global economy was already sluggish. This pandemic has acted as a huge catalyst to pull it down faster. International Monetary Fund (IMF) calls it The Great Lockdown 2020 and predicts that the economic fallout of the lockdowns around the world will be a ‘never seen before’ event in modern human history. In order to solve the first problem, i.e. Coronavirus, world economies found #lockdown and #SocialDistancing as the best ways to contain loss of human lives due to pandemic. It was a trade-off and the question was do we want to save human lives or continue economic activities, the answer to this was a no brainer.

Lockdown has had an immediate impact on industries that rely heavily on social interactions, such as Travel & Tourism, Hospitality, Entertainment, Retail and more. Closure of offices and warehouses has led to a disruption in supply chains and reduced output. All this has forced companies to lay off staff, cut salaries, unemployment which in turn results into lower or no income causing uncertainty and lesser household expenditure. This creates a vicious cycle of business closures and further job losses.

The entire world is playing this game together as one team. The moment the virus is contained by July-August 2020, the economic activities would start at a rapid pace. Once the economic activities start, job opportunities would be created, and things would only get better from here. This gets proved by IMF in their 2021 GDP predictions (real GDP, annual % change). This means the world will see a recession in 2020, a recovery in 2021 and growth from 2022 onwards.

Quick Fact – 

With this understanding, lets now try to answer the big question. An MBA is an investment. Let’s look at the answer to this question from four different risk-taking behaviours:

1. Risk avoider: If you are someone who just doesn’t like to take any risk in investments, probably this is not the right time for you to look at studying abroad. Look at starting your programme in 2022-23. But do remember, there are limited jobs in the market, hence finding a suitable job for the next two years will also be a challenge and you might end up spending it at home doing some online courses
2. Risk mitigators: Willing to take a chance after doing a lot of research, but with low-risk appetite. I expect you to start the global journey in the second half of 2021. You might want to pursue a one-year online course in your interest area or work till the lockdown is lifted
3. Risk manager: Are people who see risk as an opportunity to grow and have a well thought out approach towards investing. I expect you to look at starting your study abroad journey by January 2021
4. Risk embracers: are people who believe in ‘high-risk-high-return’ investments. I expect them to start the global journey as soon as the lockdown is lifted and is safe to travel abroad which can be as early as September 2020

About the author

Amit Mehta is a Senior Manager at SP Jain School of Global Management, Lower Parel. He has rich experience of over 17 years in the industry.

Note: The views expressed in this article are solely author’s own and do not reflect/represent those of Shiksha